Brahmaputra’s Future: Assam CM Sees Two Sides to China’s Dam

China’s ambitious move to construct the world’s largest hydropower dam on the Brahmaputra River in Tibet has sparked considerable debate and concern in downstream nations, particularly India and Bangladesh. While the geopolitical and environmental implications are widely acknowledged, Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma has articulated two distinct, even contradictory, views on the potential impact of this mega-project on his state.

The Brahmaputra, known as Yarlung Tsangpo in Tibet, is a lifeline for millions in India’s northeastern states, particularly Assam, and subsequently in Bangladesh. Its waters are crucial for agriculture, livelihoods, and the delicate ecological balance of the region. China’s new $167.8 billion project, located in Nyingchi City, Tibet, close to the Indian border, is set to dwarf even the Three Gorges Dam, generating an immense amount of electricity. This unilateral action by Beijing, in the absence of a comprehensive water-sharing treaty, has naturally raised alarms.

View 1: The Threat to Water Security and Biodiversity

The primary concern, and one widely echoed by environmentalists and hydrologists, is the potential for significant disruption to the Brahmaputra’s natural flow. If China were to significantly divert or regulate the river’s waters, it could lead to reduced water availability downstream in Assam, especially during lean seasons. This could have devastating consequences for agriculture, affecting the livelihoods of millions dependent on the river for irrigation.

Furthermore, a diminished flow could severely impact the region’s rich biodiversity. The Brahmaputra basin is home to unique ecosystems, including wetlands and various species of flora and fauna that have adapted to the river’s natural cycles of flow and flood. Altered hydrological regimes could lead to ecological imbalances, threatening the survival of these species and disrupting the delicate food chain. There are also fears that the dam could trap nutrient-rich sediment, which is vital for the fertile plains of Assam and Bangladesh.

Beyond environmental concerns, there’s a significant geopolitical dimension. India fears that China could strategically use its control over the dam to exert leverage, potentially releasing large volumes of water during times of conflict to cause floods, or withholding water to create scarcity. This adds a complex layer to the already strained bilateral relations between the two nuclear-armed neighbours.

View 2: A Potential “Flood Cushion”

However, Chief Minister Sarma has also presented a contrasting, albeit less common, perspective. He suggested that a reduced flow from the Chinese dam could, paradoxically, act as a “flood cushioning” mechanism for Assam. Assam is perennially ravaged by devastating floods during the monsoon season, causing widespread displacement and destruction. If the Chinese dam effectively holds back a portion of the monsoon-fed waters, it could potentially mitigate the severity of these annual floods.

Sarma emphasized that the Brahmaputra is a “mighty river” and not solely dependent on a single source, drawing a substantial portion of its waters from Bhutan, Arunachal Pradesh, and local rainfall within Assam itself. This suggests that even with upstream regulation by China, the river’s overall flow within India might not be drastically reduced to the point of causing severe droughts.

The Chief Minister acknowledged the scientific uncertainty surrounding these two views, stating, “I don’t know which one is correct.” He expressed confidence that the Union government is actively engaged in discussions with China on this critical issue and will take appropriate measures to safeguard India’s interests.

The Path Forward: Data Sharing and Diplomatic Engagement

Despite the differing interpretations, what remains crucial for India is transparency and reliable data sharing from China. Currently, there is no binding water-sharing treaty between the two nations, only limited data-sharing agreements that have, at times, been suspended during periods of heightened tensions. This lack of a robust framework fuels anxieties in downstream countries.

The construction of China’s mega-dam on the Brahmaputra highlights the urgent need for a comprehensive, cooperative, and transparent mechanism for transboundary river management in the region. While the full impact of this colossal project is yet to unfold, India, with Assam at its forefront, continues to monitor the developments closely, hoping that diplomacy and scientific assessment will pave the way for a solution that ensures water security and ecological balance for all riparian states.