Texas received a series of warnings leading up to the catastrophic floods, though the severity and timing of the most intense downpour still caught many by surprise. The National Weather Service (NWS) played a central role in issuing these alerts, which escalated as the threat became more imminent.
Initial Warnings and Escalation:
- Days Before: As early as Tuesday, meteorologists with the NWS offices in San Antonio and Austin began highlighting the potential for heavy rainfall and flooding in the Texas Hill Country.
- Thursday Afternoon: A broad Flood Watch was issued by the local NWS office, urging residents to be weather-aware and predicting rainfall amounts of 5 to 7 inches. This watch included Kerr County, one of the hardest-hit areas.
- Thursday Evening: Messaging from the NWS grew increasingly ominous. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) issued “Mesoscale Precipitation Discussions” indicating the potential for flash flooding, noting “concerning trends” and rainfall rates potentially exceeding 3 inches per hour.
- Early Friday Morning – Critical Hours:
- Around 1:14 a.m. local time: The NWS issued a Flash Flood Warning for Kerr County, indicating significant and potentially life-threatening flash floods. This alert typically triggers Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEA) on mobile phones in the affected region, assuming the phones are enabled for such alerts and have service.
- Around 4:03 a.m. local time: The warning escalated to a Flash Flood Emergency for south-central Kerr County, including Hunt. This is a rare and severe alert, reserved for the most life-threatening and catastrophic flooding events. It signals imminent danger and urges people to move to higher ground and evacuate flood-prone areas.
- By 5:20 a.m. local time: Water levels were rapidly rising in areas like Kerrville, with the Guadalupe River surging dramatically, reportedly rising 26 feet in just 45 minutes.
Debate Over Warning Effectiveness:
Despite these warnings, there has been significant discussion and scrutiny regarding their effectiveness and whether they adequately prepared the public and local officials for the unprecedented scale of the disaster.
- Underestimated Rainfall: Some Texas officials, including the chief of the Texas Division of Emergency Management, stated that the initial NWS forecasts did not predict the extreme amount of rain that ultimately fell, which was equivalent to months’ worth of rain for the area.
- “Nobody Saw This Coming”: Local officials, such as Kerr County Judge Rob Kelly, expressed that while they are accustomed to floods, “nobody saw this coming,” referring to the intensity and speed of the rising waters.
- Public Desensitization: Some officials noted that the public can become desensitized to frequent weather warnings, potentially leading to a lack of immediate action when a truly severe event occurs.
- Lack of Localized Warning Systems: Kerr County reportedly lacked a dedicated county-administered flood warning system, such as a siren system similar to those used for tornadoes. While such a system had been considered in the past, it was deemed too expensive by the public.
- Middle-of-the-Night Timing: The most destructive flooding occurred in the early morning hours, catching many residents and campers, particularly at youth camps along the river, while they were asleep, limiting their time to react to alerts.
- Meteorologists’ Defense: Many meteorologists, however, have defended the NWS, stating that the forecasts and warnings issued were timely and as accurate as possible given the nature of the storm, which was difficult to pinpoint in terms of exact location and rainfall amounts. They emphasize that the “signal was out there” for a heavy rainfall event.
In essence, while the NWS issued a series of increasingly urgent warnings, including rare “Flash Flood Emergency” alerts, the sheer intensity and rapid onset of the floods, combined with local preparedness challenges and the timing of the event, left many caught off guard by the devastating impact.