Tropical Threat: Bay of Bengal System Intensifies, Cyclone ‘Montha’ Expected by Monday

A developing weather system over the Bay of Bengal has intensified into a depression and is currently on a path that is likely to see it transform into a full-fledged cyclonic storm, provisionally named ‘Montha,’ by the morning of Monday, October 27, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). This marks the first major post-monsoon cyclonic threat of the season for India’s eastern coast, prompting high alerts across multiple states.

The well-marked low-pressure area, which formed over the southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining South Andaman Sea, concentrated into a depression early Saturday. As of the latest bulletin, the system is tracking west-northwestwards and is projected to strengthen rapidly. It is expected to further intensify into a deep depression by Sunday, October 26, before reaching cyclonic storm intensity over the southwest and adjoining west-central Bay of Bengal on Monday.

Potential Cyclone Montha and Impact Zone

The cyclone, once it reaches the designated strength, will be christened ‘Montha,‘ a name contributed by Thailand, which translates to “fragrant flower” or “beautiful flower.”

While the exact point of landfall remains a subject of ongoing monitoring and refinement by weather agencies, the current forecast track indicates a movement towards the coasts of Andhra Pradesh and northern Tamil Nadu. Early projections suggest a potential landfall along the Andhra Pradesh coast, possibly between Machilipatnam and Visakhapatnam, early next week.

Coastal regions are already preparing for severe weather:

• Tamil Nadu and Puducherry: The IMD has issued an Orange Alert for districts including Chennai, Tiruvallur, and Ranipet, forecasting heavy to very heavy rainfall (12-20 cm in 24 hours) on Monday, October 27. Rain activity is expected to begin earlier, affecting coastal districts like Cuddalore, Villupuram, and Chengalpet from Sunday.
• Andhra Pradesh: The state’s coastal districts are on high alert, with forecasts predicting very heavy to extremely heavy rainfall and strong winds between October 26 and October 28 as the system approaches.
• Odisha and West Bengal: Heavy rainfall is also anticipated in southern Odisha districts and parts of South Bengal, including North and South 24 Parganas, East and West Midnapore, Howrah, and Jhargram, primarily from October 27 to 30.

High Alert and Preparedness Measures

Government authorities and disaster response teams in the potentially affected states have activated their preparedness protocols.

1. Fishing Restrictions: Fishermen have been strictly advised not to venture into the deep sea along and off the coasts of Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, and West Bengal until further notice, and those currently at sea have been instructed to return to the nearest harbor immediately. The Indian Coast Guard has launched extensive outreach to ensure the safety of seafarers.
2. Disaster Response: The National Disaster Response Force (NDRF) has pre-positioned units in vulnerable coastal areas for swift rescue and relief operations.
3. Coastal Monitoring: Control rooms have been established in all key coastal districts, and officials are readying evacuation plans for low-lying settlements should the storm’s intensity and path warrant it.

Meteorologists emphasize that the post-monsoon season (October to December) is historically the most active period for cyclonic activity in the Bay of Bengal, driven by favorable oceanic conditions, including high sea surface temperatures. Residents in the coastal belt are urged to continuously monitor official weather updates from the IMD and adhere to all safety advisories issued by local authorities.